Published on February 15, 2026 by Electric Le Mans Initiative

Le Mans Is a Math Problem: Lap Time vs Pit Time vs Neutralizations

One-sentence promise: Endurance results come from a timing model, not opinions.

The Outcome That Matters

After 24 hours, ranking is driven by:

• total laps completed
• then time gaps

So the model must convert pace and operations into total distance.

First-Order Model

Define:

• T: race time (24 h)
• t_lap: average lap time in race conditions
• t_pit: pit loss per stop (in + stationary + out)
• N_pit: number of pit stops

First-order approximation:

L ~= (T - N_pit * t_pit) / t_lap

This is intentionally simple but useful. Small changes in t_lap and t_pit compound across the full event.

Why EV Strategy Is Different

An ICE GT stop is mostly fuel + service. An EV stop includes high-energy transfer time, so pit-loss management becomes central.

The EV strategy must recover that lost time through:

• better on-track pace
• better consistency
• better use of neutralization windows

Neutralization Can Change the Equation

Safety Car and Full Course Yellow phases can reduce relative pit-loss cost because race pace is compressed for all competitors.

This means the model must eventually include:

• event frequency
• event duration
• pit-loss scaling during neutralized phases

What the Full Model Must Add

• lap-time distributions (not a single lap value)
• tire effects over a stint
• driver-change timing and pace effects
• multi-class traffic
• charging curve versus SOC and temperature
• thermal derating risk

We are not starting with all of this. We are starting with the smallest model that can be falsified and improved.

Open Questions (TBD)

• What baseline t_lap should we target by day, night, and wet conditions?
• What realistic t_pit can we execute including connect/disconnect safety steps?
• What neutralization assumptions should the baseline 24-hour simulation use?

Written by Electric Le Mans Initiative